Robertskaae3887

BACKGROUND The ability to produce timely and accurate estimation of dengue cases can significantly impact disease control programs. A key challenge for dengue control in Thailand is the systematic delay in reporting at different levels in the surveillance system. Efficient and reliable surveillance and notification systems are vital to monitor health outcome trends and early detection of disease outbreaks which vary in space and time. METHODS Predicting the trend in dengue cases in real-time is a challenging task in Thailand due to a combination of factors including reporting delays. We present decision support using a spatiotemporal nowcasting model which accounts for reporting delays in a Bayesian framework with sliding windows. A case study is presented to demonstrate the proposed nowcasting method using weekly dengue surveillance data in Bangkok at district level in 2010. RESULTS The overall real-time estimation accuracy was 70.69% with 59.05% and 79.59% accuracy during low and high seasons averaged across all weeks and districts. The results suggest the model was able to give a reasonable estimate of the true numbers of cases in the presence of delayed reports in the surveillance system. With sliding windows, models could also produce similar accuracy to estimation with the whole data. CONCLUSIONS A persistent challenge for the statistical and epidemiological communities is to transform data into evidence-based knowledge that facilitates policy making about health improvements and disease control at the individual and population levels. Improving real-time estimation of infectious disease incidence is an important technical development. The effort in this work provides a template for nowcasting in practice to inform decision making for dengue control.BACKGROUND Chromosome deletions of the long arm of chromosome 4 in 4q syndrome are characterized by mild facial and digital dysmorphism, developmental delay, growth retardation, and skeletal and cardiac anomalies, which is regarded as an autism spectrum disorder. Moreover, some scarce reports indicate that patients with 4q interstitial deletion and 7p duplication may present symptoms associated with hearing loss. CASE PRESENTATION A boy with a severe developmental delay not only post-natal but also intrauterine and several dysmorphic features including microcephaly, ocular hypertelorism, exophthalmos, low-set ears, single palmar flexion crease, and overlapping toes presented discontinued cyanosis and recurrent respiratory infections. MRI, BAEP, echocardiogram and bronchoscopy revealed that he had persistent falcine sinus with a thin corpus callosum, left auditory pathway disorder, patent foramen ovale (2 mm), and tracheobronchomalacia with the right superior bronchus arising from the lateral posterior wall of the right main bronchus. Finally, the patient died with severe pneumonia at 10 months. Array CGH revealed a 23.62 Mb deletion at chromosome 4q27, arr [hg19] 4q27-q31.21 (121, 148, 089-144, 769, 263) × 1, and a 0.85 Mb duplication at chromosome 7q36.1, arr [hg19] 7q36.1-q36.2 (152, 510, 685-153, 363,5 98) × 3. It is rare for 4q syndrome cases or 7q duplications previously reported to have a hearing disorder, pulmonary dysplasia, and pulmonary arterial hypertension. CONCLUSIONS The phenotype of our patient mainly reflects the effects of haploinsufficiency of FGF2, SPATA5, NAA15, SMAD1, HHIP genes combined with a microduplication of 7q36.1.BACKGROUND The Dynamic Locking Blade Plate (DLBP) was recently introduced for fixation of displaced femoral neck fractures (FNF) and has been well received. Although the results of this implant in young patients are promising, the DLBP has not yet been compared to a standard device such as the Dynamic Hip Screw (DHS). The aim of this study is to compare the clinical outcome and costs of displaced FNF treated with internal fixation by means of either the DLBP or the DHS in patients up to 65 years of age. We hypothesize that the DLBP is superior compared to the DHS in terms of revision surgery rate, union rate, incidence of avascular necrosis and implant related failure. METHODS The DEFENDD (DisplacEd Femoral Neck fractures Dlbp versus Dhs) trial is a multicentre randomized controlled trial that will include 266 patients of 18-65 years with a displaced FNF. Patients will be randomized to receive either a DLBP or a DHS with a 11 allocation using a random block size, stratified for centre. Clinical follow up will last 1 year and questionnaires will be obtained up to 2 years. GSK126 purchase The main outcome parameter is the incidence of revision surgery within 1 year, due to either non-union, avascular necrosis (AVN) or cut out of the implant. Secondary study parameters are the incidence of avascular necrosis, non-union, (implant related) complications, functional outcome, elective removal of the implant and health-related quality of life and costs. DISCUSSION The outcome of the DEFENDD trial will provide high-level evidence of which implant is favourable for the treatment of femoral neck fractures in young patients (≤65 years). TRIAL REGISTRATION Netherlands Trial Register, NL7300 Registration date 25-09-2018.BACKGROUND Hypertension is the leading risk factor for mortality globally. African countries, including Kenya, have a high and rising prevalence of hypertension. Prehypertension is associated with an increased risk of progression to overt hypertension and a higher risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Despite this, little is documented on the prevalence and distribution of prehypertension in sub-Saharan Africa. This study sought to estimate the overall burden of prehypertension in Kenyan adults enrolled in a large hypertension control programme, Healthy Heart Africa. The distribution and determinants of prehypertension in the sample were explored as secondary objectives. METHODS This was a post hoc analysis of cross-sectional data obtained from population-level blood pressure (BP) screening of adults aged ≥18 years in the community and ambulatory care facilities in 17/47 sub-national administrative units in Kenya. All participants with a complete record for systolic and diastolic BP were included. Descriptive analyses were performed for sociodemographic characteristics.