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But Russia under Putin has never ended its wars at the negotiating table; at best it has frozen them, keeping its options open. Russia has shown zero interest in making concessions that would come close to the minimal requirements of Ukraine and its allies. As long as his military avoids total collapse, and he believes there is a chance of political change in the West, Putin will likely keep sacrificing Russians to stay in the fight. A second way for Ukraine to win — at least theoretically — would be through a diplomatic agreement. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes.

Only in the case of an early end to the fighting, a peace settlement, and Putin’s ouster (as in the “brave new world” scenario) could Russia hope to stem its loss of power. Analysts of course agree that an unequivocal withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine would be best possible outcome for the country in its dire situation. Such a situation is a tinderbox in Europe, Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group's president, said in emailed comments Monday. He noted that it's a "non-starter" for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine "because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III." Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp., told CNBC on Friday that the Russians "have a whole lot of combat power left and a lot of capacity to scale up the violence, which seems to already be happening. This thing could really drag on for a long time."

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The White House, moreover, should be concerned by the low popularity of the president, whose approval rating has hovered in the low forties for some time. A late March NPR/Ipsos poll found that most Americans think Biden has not done a good job of handling the war in Ukraine. Even if there will be no direct US military engagement inside Ukraine, spiraling energy and food prices could boost already-high inflation numbers in the United States. https://matzen-larsen.thoughtlanes.net/discovering-jennifer-griffins-age-at-fox-news has a chance to play a much larger role on the world stage if Xi can persuade Putin to stop his war and agree to peace negotiations. In the “brave new world” scenario, however, the prospect of World War III persuades China to intervene and bring Putin to his senses, laying the groundwork for a durable peace settlement between the West and Russia. The Ukraine war will also help Beijing gauge what the world’s response would likely be to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

• Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war.









• Moscow has proved resourceful when it comes to building autonomy into critical goods, Lichfield explained.









• Tying Ukrainian NATO membership to such conditions would give Putin another incentive never to meet them.









• With so much of Ukraine's fate still uncertain, analysts say all outcomes remain possible.









• Rumors have also long swirled about his alleged health problems, though US intel and military experts have warned that there is no credible evidence that he is ill.

The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told Defense News that Ukraine would not strike Russian territory with longer-range weapons pledged by the United States. After imposing sanctions and export controls, Lichfield expects the West’s latest economic pressure point — oil price caps — to yield results because the Russian economy is so tightly linked to the energy market. Army’s maneuver warfare school at Fort Benning, Georgia, said Western upgrades offer Ukraine the chance to dominate the close fight with Russian adversaries and conclude the tactical fighting to its advantage. But this winter, they’re expected to launch attacks across open plains, which would be harder to defeat, said Daniel Rice, a former U.S. Army captain who last year became a special adviser to Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military. “Even technologically advanced, wealthy states in the Middle East eventually reached a point where they’re lobbing missiles at civilian cities, openly using chemical weapons and fighting in waves — just people rushing across the field getting shot at,” Jensen said.

Ukraine war: Who is winning?

The GLSDB has a range of up to 93 miles, doubling Ukraine’s strike range. However, that still falls short of the ATACMS, which would allow Ukraine to strike Russian targets about 190 miles away. But Smith also said ATACMS producer Lockheed Martin no longer makes the missiles, and the U.S. military still needs them in its stockpiles. Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, expects the war to end at the negotiating table, but said serious diplomacy hasn’t begun because Putin is still clinging to “maximalist” goals. Moscow has proved resourceful when it comes to building autonomy into critical goods, Lichfield explained. For example, the tactic of repurposing dishwasher electronics for weapons, mocked in the West as a sign of desperation, probably means “somebody thought about that from the beginning,” he said.

• Russia’s economy contracted by only a little more than 2 percent last year – far less than expected.









• But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him.









• But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership.









• "That would probably not be an end, though, that would be the state of active warfare declining, at least temporarily, and it becomes something closer to a frozen conflict that can heat up or cool down depending on the range of factors," he said.









• The areas are largely in the eastern Donbas region and in the south of mainland Ukraine, as well as the Crimea peninsula which Russia annexed in 2014.

US President Joe Biden said Mr Putin had "chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering". Meanwhile Russia's currency, the rouble, fell to an all-time low against the dollar and the euro. "People were out on the streets last night in this city - they were waving the Ukrainian flag. They said this was their land. They were going nowhere," she reported. And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an "instant" and devastating response. Russia did not want to occupy Ukraine, he said, but would demilitarise and "de-Nazify" the country. Perhaps the most remarkable change stemming from the war in Ukraine is the awakening of Europe from its post-Cold War slumber.

What are the Ukrainian refugees who fled their country doing now? Are they able to get jobs in their host countries? — Laurel

Emory University’s Reiter listed two main reasons for the lack of appetite in Ukraine for any negotiations that would mean accepting the loss of territory. “The war has been so absolutely brutal that they’re fearful of what will happen in territories handed over to Russia,” he said. As things stand, Putin, despite crushing setbacks on the battlefield, appears to be prepared for a long fight and believes Russia will win. Russia’s allies like China – which has been a lukewarm friend to Putin in his war against Ukraine – have also been unable, or unwilling, to force him to the negotiating table.

• That’s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble.









• That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool.









• Ukrainian armed forces operating in the region denied they had carried out the strike, stating that they "did not conduct any combat operations with means of destruction."









• More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels.









• So a more likely end point here is not a negotiated peace, but rather a conflict that consolidates around lines of control.

At an appropriate point next year, Ukraine would declare a pause in offensive military operations and shift its primary focus to defending and rebuilding liberated areas while integrating with Western institutions. Then, at its July, 2024 summit in Washington, NATO would invite Ukraine to join the Western alliance, guaranteeing the security of all territory controlled by the Ukrainian government at that point under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Eurasia Group's chairman, Cliff Kupchan, and colleagues added in a note Thursday that "a rump Ukrainian state" is likely to be led from Lviv, a city in Ukraine's west and near the border with Poland, with the semi-exiled government likely to receive "heavy western support." This would bear similarities to the situation after the initial Russian incursions into Ukraine in 2014 – but this time the west would be left facing an implacable, large hostile actor in Moscow. Ukraine, meanwhile, would need years of western support to ensure its eastern border remains stable.