Garciayusuf1784

He said the security situation in Europe was without precedent since the fall of the Iron Curtain. "Added to that are the recent border crisis involving thousands of migrants in Belarus, as well as Russia's backing of separatists in the Caucasus and elsewhere," he said. But the official noted there had been a combination of sharp bellicose rhetoric from Moscow, accusations of being provoked by Ukraine and Nato, a lack of transparency, and a worrying track record, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. "We could have a very large number of refugees, deaths could reasonably be expected to be high as would destruction within Ukraine," he said. Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and "chatter" being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade.

But European governments could go further and force non-critical industries to shut down or mandate a reduction in use of gas in commercial/office buildings and homes. In a scenario where there is relatively little disruption to energy supplies, the main impact on the UK and other European economies is comes from uncertainty on gas prices. So far gas has continued to flow from Russia to Europe (including via Ukraine) during the conflict, though wholesale prices have increased significantly. The UK imported around 13% of its total fuel (oil, gas, LNG, electricity) from Russia in 2019.

Hungary previously said it would block further financial aid to Ukraine, but this morning suggested it was ready to compromise after the EU reportedly drew up plans to hit Budapest's economy. Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply. Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. "I was clear about the tragic consequences that any invasion of Ukraine could have for all people - both Ukrainian, Russian and the security of Europe," Mr Wallace said of his meeting with the Russian defence minister. If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced.

UK manufacturers face higher costs as Ukraine crisis hits supply chains

After 2,000 anti-tank weapons were delivered last week and 30 British troops arrived to teach Ukrainian forces how to use them, the phrase "God Save the Queen" began trending on Twitter in Ukraine. Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv were offering free drinks to anyone who had a UK passport. But his remark lives on as a challenge to all policymakers thinking about whether to engage diplomatically - and even militarily - in a potential conflict between two foreign countries. It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders. After its botched start, Homes for Ukraine has been an effective model for accommodating large numbers of refugees (more than 110,000 as of January 2023) while defusing the political tension that characterises other asylum policy.

• However, experts said the conflict in Ukraine – which has triggered a surge in oil and gas prices, as well as renewed supply chain disruption – would hit firms across Europe and drag down industrial production over the coming months.









• But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied.









• Almost 20% of the UK's vegetable product imports come from there, according to UN Comtrade data.









• “We realised the weapons and the sanctions were the real levers that we had over Russia but we were behind the curve in terms of our sanctions,” she said.









• Ms Batters said the shortage of crops would also affect meat production as farmers need it to feed their livestock.

Despite warnings from the US and its Nato allies that any invasion by Russia of Ukraine would have "severe economic consequences," Moscow's military build-up on the border continues. https://barlow-larsen.blogbright.net/why-google-news-isnt-functioning-properly for January 2022 shows that the UK economy is now stronger than it was before the pandemic. Sanctions on Russia are already starting to worsen an acute cost of living crisis in the UK. Average household income is expected to fall a further £1,259 with larger price rises than expected until the end of 2025, according to new estimates. Labour's shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Pat McFadden, said households were facing "a year of surging inflation, weak earnings growth and tax rises".

UK to be major economy worst hit by Ukraine war, says OECD

If, contrary to what is reflected in futures prices, energy prices stay at current levels beyond the middle of next year, the UK would face a larger and more persistent increase in the price level and fall in real household incomes. Permanently higher energy prices could deliver an adverse supply shock that reduced potential output in the medium term, which in turn would damage the structural fiscal position. In addition to capturing these impacts on the UK economy forecast, there is a smaller, though significant, impact on the fiscal forecast from lower UK equity prices, which have fallen in the wake of the Russian invasion. Our fiscal forecast captures the direct effect of lower equity prices on capital gains tax on the disposal of financial assets, though we do not assume any indirect wealth effect from lower equity prices on consumption and GDP.

• With war raging in Ukraine, many fear ministers will be distracted from climate action.









• Labour's shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Pat McFadden, said households were facing "a year of surging inflation, weak earnings growth and tax rises".









• The government is likely to face further pressure on its tentative support for onshore wind and solar.









• However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine.









• However, any disruption to the supply of energy to Europe will affect wholesale prices in the UK to a greater extent than implied by direct trade links.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly changed the calculus in deciding where to invest and where to cut. That means extremely difficult choices for a Treasury gearing up for retrenchment and conscious that protecting military budgets means cuts would fall even more heavily on public services, themselves in desperate need of more investment. As prime minister Boris Johnson promised to increase defence spending from an existing 2% to 2.5% of GDP; his successor Liz Truss went further by committing to 3%. This shift in approach to resourcing Russia and Ukraine is noticeable, and the UK can consider its response to the war so far a diplomatic success.

Lazy Britain now needs to be paid to get back to the office

"I think the whole world has got to recognise that this is not something we've faced before, we are going to see wheat price inflation levels that have never happened," she said. Last week, Boris Johnson, another former prime minister, argued that the re-election of Donald J. Trump to the White House would not be such a bad thing, so long as Mr. Trump comes around on helping Ukraine. “I simply cannot believe that Trump will ditch the Ukrainians,” Mr. Johnson wrote in a Daily Mail column that read like a personal appeal to the candidate. Britain’s economy is forecast to slow to a standstill next year as it suffers more than any other major industrial country from the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian president has intensified a crackdown on opposition since the start of his invasion of Ukraine, and this has ramped up further as the elections have approached. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been highly critical of the EU's financial and military aid for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russia.

• The UK stands with Ukraine, its democratically-elected government and its brave people at this awful time.









• His incomings fell in 2022 as he earned less rental income from real estate he owned because of the outbreak of the war.









• The conflict in Ukraine pushed the price of oil to its highest level for nearly 14 years at one point and this has had a knock-on impact on fuel costs, with UK petrol prices hitting record highs.









• Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl.









• "I was clear about the tragic consequences that any invasion of Ukraine could have for all people - both Ukrainian, Russian and the security of Europe," Mr Wallace said of his meeting with the Russian defence minister.









• Policy responses to Ukraine should address all the interlocking crises, says Bernice Lee from Chatham House.

Ukraine is known as the "breadbasket of Europe," responsible for a large proportion of the world's wheat. The COP talks are designed to give all countries an equal seat at the table, with anyone able to block progress, although these days few want to be perceived as great disruptors. Leaders including Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen have both called for an accelerated roll-out of clean energy. The German government has brought forward its target for 100% renewable electricity by five years to 2035.

We will continue to work with Ukraine and our international partners for a just and sustainable peace. According to reports, Russian missiles on Kyiv and Kharkiv killed at least 18 people and injured over one hundred. The devastation was felt most acutely in Kharkiv, where an apartment block was hit, killing two people, and injuring 35 residents.

The predictions – contained in the OECD’s half-yearly economic outlook – represent a sharp downgrade from the estimated 4.7% growth this year and 2.1% next year made six months ago. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who has been serving prison time since 2021 after leading street protests and starting a nationwide opposition movement, was recently moved to a penal colony in Russia's far north. It's highly likely the election will see him start a new six-year term, which - if completed - would make him Russia's longest-serving ruler since the 18th century. Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union. His incomings fell in 2022 as he earned less rental income from real estate he owned because of the outbreak of the war. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US.

• Laurence Boone, the thinktank’s chief economist, said the UK was being hit by a combination of factors, including higher interest rates, higher taxes, reduced trade and more expensive energy.









• Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.









• The economic impact of the war will depend on the extent to which the conflict, and therefore the severity of sanctions and economic disruption, escalates and how long it lasts.









• The OECD is the second international body to cut its growth forecast in the past two days, with the World Bank warning in its global economic prospects of a return to 1970s-style stagflation – a combination of weak growth and high inflation.









• While supply chain issues continued to dog some sectors, construction and manufacturing both grew, the ONS said.

All of this disruption could massively increase the price of gas in Europe and, consequently, the UK. But we now see more clearly that, in a crisis, for the foreseeable future UK interests are aligned with the US and Europe, especially if China aligns itself more with Russia. The revival of NATO’s purpose and a unified western response have been a necessary if painful reminder of where UK interests truly lie. One risk is that leaks and arguments about the size of the army, military procurement and GDP percentages distract from a serious reckoning on what a new war in Europe means for the post-Cold War ‘peace dividend’ that has benefited us all.