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This article examines the most controversial of the activities of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) long-term seasonal forecasting for the South Asian subcontinent. Under the pressure of recurrent famines, in 1886 the imperial IMD commenced annual issue of monsoon predictions several months in advance, focused on one variable rainfall. This state service was new to global late nineteenth-century meteorology, attempted first and most rigorously in India. Successive IMD leaders adapted the forecast in light of scientific and infrastructural developments, continuously revising the underlying methods of its production. All methods failed to achieve accurate prevision. Nevertheless, the imperatives of economic administration, empire and public demand compelled IMD scientists to continue annual publication of this unreliable product. This article contends that the seasonal forecast is best understood as an enduring ritual of good governance in a monsoonal environment. Through analysis of newspaper controversies, it suggests that although the seasonal forecast was the most compelling justification for the IMD's imperial and global importance, its limitations undercut popular trust in modern meteorology. Finally, this case illustrates the centrality of 'tropical meteorology' to the historical development of modern atmospheric science.

The aim of the current study was to establish whether the neighbourhood food environment, characterised by the healthiness of food outlets, the diversity of food outlets and fast-food outlet density within a 500 m or 1000 m street network buffer around the home address, contributed to ethnic differences in diet quality.

Cross-sectional cohort study.

Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Data on adult participants of Dutch, South-Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan descent (n total 4728) in the HELIUS study were analysed.

The neighbourhood food environment of ethnic minority groups living in Amsterdam is less supportive of a healthy diet and of less diversity than that of participants of Dutch origin. For example, participants of Turkish, Moroccan and South-Asian Surinamese descent reside in a neighbourhood with a significantly higher fast-food outlet density (≤1000 m) than participants of Dutch descent. However, we found no evidence that neighbourhood food environment characteristics directly contributed to ethnic differences in diet quality.

Although ethnic minority groups lived in less healthy food environments than participants of ethnic Dutch origin, this did not contribute to ethnic differences in diet quality. Future research should investigate other direct or indirect consequences of residing in less supportive food environments and gain a better understanding of how different ethnic groups make use of their neighbourhood food environment.

Although ethnic minority groups lived in less healthy food environments than participants of ethnic Dutch origin, this did not contribute to ethnic differences in diet quality. Future research should investigate other direct or indirect consequences of residing in less supportive food environments and gain a better understanding of how different ethnic groups make use of their neighbourhood food environment.

Concerns have been raised about the utility of self-report assessments in predicting future suicide attempts. Clinicians in pediatric emergency departments (EDs) often are required to assess suicidal risk. selleck kinase inhibitor The Death Implicit Association Test (IAT) is an alternative to self-report assessment of suicidal risk that may have utility in ED settings.

A total of 1679 adolescents recruited from 13 pediatric emergency rooms in the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network were assessed using a self-report survey of risk and protective factors for a suicide attempt, and the IAT, and then followed up 3 months later to determine if an attempt had occurred. The accuracy of prediction was compared between self-reports and the IAT using the area under the curve (AUC) with respect to receiver operator characteristics.

A few self-report variables, namely, current and past suicide ideation, past suicidal behavior, total negative life events, and school or social connectedness, predicted an attempt at 3 months with an AUC of 0.87 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84-0.90] in the entire sample, and AUC = 0.91, (95% CI 0.85-0.95) for those who presented without reported suicidal ideation. The IAT did not add significantly to the predictive power of selected self-report variables. The IAT alone was modestly predictive of 3-month attempts in the overall sample ((AUC = 0.59, 95% CI 0.52-0.65) and was a better predictor in patients who were non-suicidal at baseline (AUC = 0.67, 95% CI 0.55-0.79).

In pediatric EDs, a small set of self-reported items predicted suicide attempts within 3 months more accurately than did the IAT.

In pediatric EDs, a small set of self-reported items predicted suicide attempts within 3 months more accurately than did the IAT.

Definition of disorder subtypes may facilitate precision treatment for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We aimed to identify PTSD subtypes and evaluate their associations with genetic risk factors, types of stress exposures, comorbidity, and course of PTSD.

Data came from a prospective study of three U.S. Army Brigade Combat Teams that deployed to Afghanistan in 2012. Soldiers with probable PTSD (PTSD Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fifth Edition ≥31) at three months postdeployment comprised the sample (N = 423) for latent profile analysis using Gaussian mixture modeling and PTSD symptom ratings as indicators. PTSD profiles were compared on polygenic risk scores (derived from external genomewide association study summary statistics), experiences during deployment, comorbidity at three months postdeployment, and persistence of PTSD at nine months postdeployment.

Latent profile analysis revealed profiles characterized by prominent intrusions, avoidance, and hyperaromorbidity, and course. Future studies should evaluate whether PTSD typology modifies treatment response and should clarify distinctions between the dysphoric profile and depressive disorders.