Gormanbennetsen8097

Following the detection of fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith, Lepidoptera Noctuidae) in Western Australia in early 2020 and the lack of government response action, we estimate the impact it is likely to have on the state's agriculture. A bioeconomic model is used to estimate cost and revenue implications for broadacre cropping and horticulture industries. We assume permanent S. frugiperda populations are likely to establish in areas of the state's north and mid-west over the next decade, and other regions may experience sporadic outbreaks over single seasons. Over 0.8 million hectares of host crops could be permanently affected, while sporadic outbreaks may affect a further 150,000 hectares. Expressed in Australian dollars (A$), S. frugiperda is likely to add a A$14.2-39.3 million burden to agricultural producers per annum by year 10 of the outbreak. Approximately 55% of these damage costs are attributable to yield loss and 45% to increased variable production costs.

Childhood maltreatment has been consistently associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the mechanisms of this relationship are not yet fully understood. We explored the relative contribution of anxiety/depression, smoking, body mass index (BMI) and inflammation (C-reactive protein, CRP) to the association between childhood maltreatment and CVD in men and women aged 40-69 years in the UK.

We used data from 40 596 men and 59 511 women from UK Biobank. To estimate the indirect effects of childhood maltreatment (physical, sexual and emotional abuse, and emotional and physical neglect) on incident CVD via each of the mediators, we applied a sequential mediation approach.

All forms of maltreatment were associated with increased CVD risk [hazard ratios (HRs) ranging from 1.09 to 1.27]. Together, anxiety/depression, smoking, BMI and inflammation (indexed by CRP) mediated 26-90% of the association between childhood maltreatment and CVD, and the contribution of these mediators differed by type of maltreatment and sex. Anxiety/depression mediated the largest proportion of the association of sexual abuse, emotional abuse and emotional neglect with CVD (accounting for 16-43% of the total effect), especially in women. In men, BMI contributed the most to the indirect effect of associations of physical abuse and physical neglect with CVD; in women, anxiety/depression and BMI had similar contributions.

These findings add to the understanding of how childhood maltreatment affects CVD risk and identify modifiable mediating factors that could potentially reduce the burden of CVD in people exposed to maltreatment in early life.

These findings add to the understanding of how childhood maltreatment affects CVD risk and identify modifiable mediating factors that could potentially reduce the burden of CVD in people exposed to maltreatment in early life.Brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say) (Hemiptera Pentatomidae), is a common insect that can infest corn fields in the Mid-South and Southeastern U.S. Infestations and damage are sporadic, thus little research has been conducted on the impact of brown stink bug infesting corn seedlings. Two experiments were conducted in eleven commercial corn fields in the Mississippi Delta to evaluate the impact of damage from natural stink bug infestations during the seedling stage ( less then V4) on corn yield and growth during 2018 and 2019. Single plants and 3-meter sections of the row were marked at each location. Plant damage for the single plant experiment was rated on a 0-3 scale and every single plant was given a damage rating based on visible symptomology. As damage severity increased, plant height and yield decreased. Some plants with the most severe damage did not produce any grain. At each location, sections of row (plots) with 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% damaged plants were identified. All levels of damaged plants resulted in lower yield compared to the nondamaged control. These results demonstrate the brown stink bug infestations during the seedling stage ( less then V4) can reduce corn yield. The magnitude of yield reductions can be dependent on several factors including the severity of damage to individual plants and the percentage of plants with damage within the field. Although detecting infestations with current scouting methods is difficult, fields should be scouted and infestations managed to minimize yield loss.

The most used mortality risk prediction models in cardiac surgery are the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (ES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score. There is no agreement on which score should be considered more accurate nor which score should be utilized in each population subgroup. We sought to provide a thorough quantitative assessment of these 2 models.

We performed a systematic literature review and captured information on discrimination, as quantified by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and calibration, as quantified by the ratio of observed-to-expected mortality (OE). We performed random effects meta-analysis of the performance of the individual models as well as pairwise comparisons and subgroup analysis by procedure type, time and continent.

The ES2 AUC 0.783 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.765-0.800]; OE 1.102 (95% CI 0.943-1.289) and STS [AUC 0.757 (95% CI 0.727-0.785); OE 1.111 (95% CI 0.853-1.447)] showed good overall discrimination and calibration. There was no significant difference in the discrimination of the 2 models (difference in AUC -0.016; 95% CI -0.034 to -0.002; P = 0.09). However, the calibration of ES2 showed significant geographical variations (P < 0.001) and a trend towards miscalibration with time (P=0.057). This was not seen with STS.

ES2 and STS are reliable predictors of short-term mortality following adult cardiac surgery in the populations from which they were derived. Ethyl3Aminobenzoate STS may have broader applications when comparing outcomes across continents as compared to ES2.

Prospero (https//www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/) CRD42020220983.

Prospero (https//www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/) CRD42020220983.

Because randomized trials of sustained dietary changes are sometimes impractical for long-term outcomes, the explicit emulation of a (hypothetical) target trial using observational data may be an important tool for nutritional epidemiology.

We describe a methodological approach that aims to emulate a target trial of dietary interventions sustained over many years using data from observational cohort studies.

We estimated the 20-y risk of all-cause mortality under the sustained implementation of the food-based goals of the American Heart Association (AHA) 2020 using data from 3 prospective observational studies of US men [Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS)] and women [Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and Nurses' Health Study II (NHS II)]. We applied the parametric g-formula to estimate the 20-y mortality risk under a dietary intervention and under no dietary intervention.

There were 165,411 participants who met the eligibility criteria. The mean age at baseline was 57.4 y (range, 43-82 y) in the HPFS, 52.