Kromannkidd3165

To develop a sensitive risk score predicting the risk of mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using complete blood count (CBC).

We performed a retrospective cohort study from a total of 13,138 inpatients with COVID-19 in Hubei, China, and Milan, Italy. Among them, 9,810 patients with

2 CBC records from Hubei were assigned to the training cohort. CBC parameters were analyzed as potential predictors for all-cause mortality and were selected by the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM).

Five risk factors were derived to construct a composite score (PAWNN score) using the Cox regression model, including platelet counts, age, white blood cell counts, neutrophil counts, and neutrophillymphocyte ratio. The PAWNN score showed good accuracy for predicting mortality in 10-fold cross-validation (AUROCs 0.92-0.93) and subsets with different quartile intervals of follow-up and preexisting diseases. The performance of the score was further validated in 2,949 patients with only 1 CBC record from the Hubei cohort (AUROC 0.97) and 227 patients from the Italian cohort (AUROC 0.80). The latent Markov model (LMM) demonstrated that the PAWNN score has good prediction power for transition probabilities between different latent conditions.

The PAWNN score is a simple and accurate risk assessment tool that can predict the mortality for COVID-19 patients during their entire hospitalization. This tool can assist clinicians in prioritizing medical treatment of COVID-19 patients.

This work was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFF0101504, 2016YFF0101505, 2020YFC2004702, 2020YFC0845500), the Key R&D Program of Guangdong Province (2020B1111330003), and the medical flight plan of Wuhan University (TFJH2018006).

This work was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFF0101504, 2016YFF0101505, 2020YFC2004702, 2020YFC0845500), the Key R&D Program of Guangdong Province (2020B1111330003), and the medical flight plan of Wuhan University (TFJH2018006).

During the COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea has achieved perfect universal health coverage (UHC)-all Koreans receive UHC regardless of their socioeconomic status. The current study investigated whether socioeconomic disparities remained in COVID-19 health outcomes under UHC.

This retrospective, observational study included all 7,590 confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea up to 15 May 2020. We used the official medical claim database, and socioeconomic status was estimated by insurance type (National Health Insurance Service [NHIS] beneficiaries and Medical Aid [MA] recipients). Type of insurance is a well-known indicator of socioeconomic status. Prevalence (per one million), mortality rate (per one million), and case fatality rate were calculated. To determine the factors associated with case fatality rate, multivariable logistic regressions were performed.

The nationwide prevalence, mortality rate, and case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 144•4, 4•3 and 3•0%, respectively. MA recipients had higher prevalence (424•3 vs 136.3), mortality rate (28•3 vs 3•6), and case fatality rate (6•7 vs 2•7) than NHIS beneficiaries. However, the adjusted analysis showed that the type of insurance was not associated with higher odds of case fatality.

We found socioeconomic disparities in COVID-19 prevalence and fatality despite UHC. selleck inhibitor However, disparities in fatality were not due to socioeconomic status, but due to the poor underlying health conditions of the people. This result can be explained by a combination of UHC, rapid early testing and treatment, transmission-reducing behaviours, and regional preparedness.

This research did not receive any funding.

This research did not receive any funding.Foresight methodologies enable individuals and organizations to envision different future scenarios and plan for greater future resilience. However, foresight is an underused methodology in the Western Pacific region for health policy development that could be extremely beneficial, among other areas, in the context of public health emergency response. We present lessons learned from the application of foresight methodologies through remote, agile think tank sprints to inform the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Regional Office's (WPRO) response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Four think tanks were set up in topic areas of interest. The think tanks used a six-step foresight methodology to develop scenarios for the pandemic in an 18-month horizon. Backcasting was used to generate recommendations for WHO response and support for countries. This case study demonstrates the value of using foresight methodologies in public health, and specifically in the context of a public health emergency, and its ability to inform more context-appropriate and future-proof responses.

Japan.

Japan.

COVID-19 emerged as a major public health outbreak in late 2019. Malaysia reported its first imported case on 25th January 2020, and adopted a policy of extensive contact tracing and hospitalising of all cases. We describe the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 cases nationwide and determine the risk factors associated with disease severity.

Clinical records of all RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases aged ≥12 years admitted to 18 designated hospitals in Malaysia between 1st February and 30th May 2020 with complete outcomes were retrieved. Epidemiological history, co-morbidities, clinical features, investigations, management and complications were captured using REDCap database. Variables were compared between mild and severe diseases. Univariate and multivariate regression were used to identify determinants for disease severity.

The sample comprised of 5889 cases (median age 34 years, male 71.7%). Majority were mild (92%), and 3.3% required intensive care, with 80% admitted within the first five days. Older age (≥51 years), underlying chronic kidney disease and chronic pulmonary disease, fever, cough, diarrhoea, breathlessness, tachypnoea, abnormal chest radiographs and high serum CRP (≥5mg/dL) on admission were significant determinants for severity (

<0.05). The case fatality rate was 1.2%, and the three commonest complications were liver injuries (6.7%), kidney injuries (4%), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (2.3%).

Lower case fatality rate was possibly contributed by young cases with mild diseases and early hospitalisation. Abnormal chest radiographic findings in elderly with tachypnoea require close monitoring in the first five days to detect early deterioration.

Lower case fatality rate was possibly contributed by young cases with mild diseases and early hospitalisation. Abnormal chest radiographic findings in elderly with tachypnoea require close monitoring in the first five days to detect early deterioration.