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Serology tests can identify previous infections and facilitate estimation of the number of total infections. However, immunoglobulins targeting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported to wane below the detectable level of serological assays. We estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection from serology studies, accounting for expected levels of antibody acquisition (seroconversion) and waning (seroreversion), and apply this framework using data from New York City (NYC) and Connecticut.

We estimated time from seroconversion to seroreversion and infection fatality ratio (IFR) using mortality data from March-October 2020 and population-level cross-sectional seroprevalence data from April-August 2020 in NYC and Connecticut. We then estimated the daily seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The estimated average time from seroconversion to seroreversion was 3-4 months. The estimated IFR was 1.1% (95% credible interval 1.0-1.2%) in NYC and 1.4% (1.1-1.7%) in Connecticut. The estimated daily seroprevalence declined after a peak in the spring. The estimated cumulative incidence reached 26.8% (24.2-29.7%) and 8.8% (7.1-11.3%) at the end of September in NYC and Connecticut, higher than maximum seroprevalence measures (22.1% and 6.1%), respectively.

The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is underestimated using cross-sectional serology data without adjustment for waning antibodies. Our approach can help quantify the magnitude of underestimation and adjust estimates for waning antibodies.

This study was supported by the US National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

This study was supported by the US National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.Amperial™ is a novel assay platform that uses immobilized antigen in a conductive polymer gel followed by an electrochemical detection. A highly specific and sensitive assay was developed to quantify levels of IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in saliva. After establishing linearity and limit of detection we established a reference range of 5 standard deviations above the mean. There were no false positives in 667 consecutive saliva samples obtained prior to 2019. Saliva was obtained from 34 patients who had recovered from documented COVID-19 or had documented positive serologies. All of the patients with symptoms severe enough to seek medical attention had positive antibody tests and 88% overall had positive results. We obtained blinded paired saliva and plasma samples from 14 individuals. The plasma was analyzed using an EUA-FDA cleared ELISA kit and the saliva was analyzed by our Amperial™ assay. All 5 samples with negative plasma titers were negative in saliva testing. Eight of the 9 positive plasma samples were positive in saliva and 1 had borderline results. A CLIA validation was performed as a laboratory developed test in a high complexity laboratory. A quantitative non-invasive saliva based SARSCoV-2 antibody test was developed and validated with sufficient specificity to be useful for population-based monitoring and monitoring of individuals following vaccination.Behavioral and life style factors plausibly play a role in likelihood of being hospitalized for COVID-19. Genetic vulnerability to hospitalization after SARS-CoV2 infection may partially relate to comorbid behavioral risk factors, especially the use of combustible psychoactive substances. Paralleling the COVID-19 crisis has been increasingly permissive laws for recreational cannabis use. Cannabis Use Disorder (CUD) is a psychiatric disorder that is heritable and genetically correlated with respiratory disease, independent of tobacco smoking. By leveraging genome-wide association summary statistics of CUD and COVID-19, we find that at least 1/3 rd of the genetic vulnerability to COVID-19 overlaps with genomic liability to CUD (rg=.34, p=0.0003). Genetic causality as a potential mechanism of risk could not be excluded. VY3135 The association between CUD and COVID-19 remained when accounting for genetics of trying marijuana, tobacco smoking (ever smoking regularly, cigarettes per day, smoking cessation, age of smoking initiation), BMI, fasting glucose, forced expiration volume, education attainment, and Townsend deprivation index. Heavy problematic cannabis use may increase chances of hospitalization due to COVID-19 respiratory complications. Curbing excessive cannabis use may be an essential strategy in COVID-19 mitigation.The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global epidemic crisis with tens of thousands confirmed cases surfacing everyday. The infection rates in households, offices and public places are quite different from those in encompassed spaces such as airplanes, trains and cruise ships. Studying the behavior of COVID-19 in confined spaces like Diamond Princess cruise is of great importance to understand the disease progression and to manage the epidemic. We propose a novel mixture model to estimate the infection distribution and total infected number after 14 days of quarantine based on PCR test data performed on the Diamond Princess cruise.

In contrast to the officially reported 634 individuals with PCR-positive results after the 14 day quarantine, which as of April 27, 2020 had increased to 712, we conclude that this number should be at least 1000. The discrepancy might be caused by the false-negative result of the PCR test or the occurrence of infection after the test.

In contrast to the officially reported 634 individuals with PCR-positive results after the 14 day quarantine, which as of April 27, 2020 had increased to 712, we conclude that this number should be at least 1000. The discrepancy might be caused by the false-negative result of the PCR test or the occurrence of infection after the test.

Estimates of seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 vary widely. We ascertained IgG levels across a single US metropolitan site, Chicago, over the 2020 summer, a period when restrictions on activities had been lifted.

We utilized a self-sampled dried blood spot assay to quantitatively monitor antibodies to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 in 1545 participants, with return of blood spot cards either by mail or in-person drop-off.

Seroprevalence was 19.8%, with no significant difference between method of contact, or between essential and non-essential workers. Only a small number (1.2%) of participants reported having had a diagnosis of COVID-19 based on virus detection, consistent with a 16-fold greater exposure to SARS-CoV-2 measured by serology than detected by viral testing. Only a modest correlation was observed between having antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid compared to RBD, with many only having detectable anti-RBD antibodies. From a subset of those who participated in repeat testing, three-quarters of seropositive individuals retained detectable antibodies for at least 120 days.