Guzmanvinter9126

Killer cells are incapable of invading or eliminating competitors on a community level. Instead, bacterial warfare itself can facilitate coexistence between nominally antagonistic strains. While a variety of defensive strategies against microbial warfare exist, the material consequences of cell death provide target cells with their first line of defence.A key challenge for many infectious diseases is to predict the time to extinction under specific interventions. In general, this question requires the use of stochastic models which recognize the inherent individual-based, chance-driven nature of the dynamics; yet stochastic models are inherently computationally expensive, especially when parameter uncertainty also needs to be incorporated. Deterministic models are often used for prediction as they are more tractable; however, their inability to precisely reach zero infections makes forecasting extinction times problematic. Here, we study the extinction problem in deterministic models with the help of an effective 'birth-death' description of infection and recovery processes. We present a practical method to estimate the distribution, and therefore robust means and prediction intervals, of extinction times by calculating their different moments within the birth-death framework. We show that these predictions agree very well with the results of stochastic models by analysing the simplified susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics as well as studying an example of more complex and realistic dynamics accounting for the infection and control of African sleeping sickness (Trypanosoma brucei gambiense).Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed upon a monotonic decay needs a different description from that of the standard chaotic dynamics. The concept of snapshot attractors and their natural distribution has been adopted from the field of the latest climate change research. This shows the importance of the finite-time chaotic effect and ensemble interpretation while investigating the spread of a disease. By defining statistical measures over the ensemble, we can interpret the internal variability of the epidemic as the onset of complex dynamics-even for those values of contact parameters where originally regular behaviour is expected. We argue that anomalous outbreaks of the infectious class cannot die out until transient chaos is presented in the system. Nevertheless, this fact becomes apparent by using an ensemble approach rather than a single trajectory representation. These findings are applicable generally in explicitly time-dependent epidemic systems regardless of parameter values and time scales.A major goal of computational neuroscience is to understand the relationship between synapse-level structure and network-level functionality. Caenorhabditis elegans is a model organism to probe this relationship due to the historic availability of the synaptic structure (connectome) and recent advances in whole brain calcium imaging techniques. Recent work has applied the concept of network controllability to neuronal networks, discovering some neurons that are able to drive the network to a certain state. However, previous work uses a linear model of the network dynamics, and it is unclear if the real neuronal network conforms to this assumption. Here, we propose a method to build a global, low-dimensional model of the dynamics, whereby an underlying global linear dynamical system is actuated by temporally sparse control signals. A key novelty of this method is discovering candidate control signals that the network uses to control itself. We analyse these control signals in two ways, showing they are interpretable and biologically plausible. First, these control signals are associated with transitions between behaviours, which were previously annotated via expert-generated features. Second, these signals can be predicted both from neurons previously implicated in behavioural transitions but also additional neurons previously unassociated with these behaviours. The proposed mathematical framework is generic and can be generalized to other neurosensory systems, potentially revealing transitions and their encodings in a completely unsupervised way.Controlling the regional re-emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) after its initial spread in ever-changing personal contact networks and disease landscapes is a challenging task. In a landscape context, contact opportunities within and between populations are changing rapidly as lockdown measures are relaxed and a number of social activities re-activated. Using an individual-based metapopulation model, we explored the efficacy of different control strategies across an urban-rural gradient in Wales, UK. Our model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low. Additional isolation of non-symptomatic infected individuals, who may be detected by effective test-and-trace strategies, is pivotal to reducing the overall epidemic size over a wider range of transmission scenarios. Mps1-IN-6 research buy We define an 'urban-rural gradient in epidemic size' as a correlation between regional epidemic size and connectivity within the region, with more highly connected urban populations experiencing relatively larger outbreaks. For interventions focused on regional lockdowns, the strength of such gradients in epidemic size increased with higher travel frequencies, indicating a reduced efficacy of the control measure in the urban regions under these conditions. When both non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals are isolated or regional lockdown strategies are enforced, we further found the strongest urban-rural epidemic gradients at high transmission rates. This effect was reversed for strategies targeted at symptomatic individuals only. Our results emphasize the importance of test-and-trace strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas.