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These results show that time series of disease incidence collected through ordinary surveillance activities may exhibit characteristic signatures prior to an outbreak, a phenomenon that may be quite general among infectious disease systems.Once thought to be the magical horn of a unicorn, narwhal tusks are one of the most charismatic structures in biology. Despite years of speculation, little is known about the tusk's function, because narwhals spend most of their lives hidden underneath the Arctic ice. Some hypotheses propose that the tusk has sexual functions as a weapon or as a signal. Irinotecan order By contrast, other hypotheses propose that the tusk functions as an environmental sensor. Since assessing the tusks function in nature is difficult, we can use the morphological relationships of tusk size with body size to understand this mysterious trait. To do so, we collected morphology data on 245 adult male narwhals over the course of 35 years. Based on the disproportional growth and large variation in tusk length we found, we provide the best evidence to date that narwhal tusks are indeed sexually selected. By combining our results on tusk scaling with known material properties of the tusk, we suggest that the narwhal tusk is a sexually selected signal that is used during male-male contests.Genetic relatedness is a key driver of the evolution of cooperation. One mechanism that may ensure social partners are genetically related is kin discrimination, in which individuals are able to distinguish kin from non-kin and adjust their behaviour accordingly. However, the impact of kin discrimination upon the overall level of cooperation remains obscure. Specifically, while kin discrimination allows an individual to help more-related social partners over less-related social partners, it is unclear whether and how the population average level of cooperation that is evolutionarily favoured should differ under kin discrimination versus indiscriminate social behaviour. Here, we perform a general mathematical analysis in order to assess whether, when and in which direction kin discrimination changes the average level of cooperation in an evolving population. We find that kin discrimination may increase, decrease or leave unchanged the average level of cooperation, depending upon whether the optimal level of cooperation is a convex, concave or linear function of genetic relatedness. We develop an extension of the classic 'tragedy of the commons' model of cooperation in order to provide an illustration of these results. Our analysis provides a method to guide future research on the evolutionary consequences of kin discrimination.The 'haplodiploidy hypothesis' argues that haplodiploid inheritance in bees, wasps, and ants generates relatedness asymmetries that promote the evolution of altruism by females, who are less related to their offspring than to their sisters ('supersister' relatedness). However, a consensus holds that relatedness asymmetry can only drive the evolution of eusociality if workers can direct their help preferentially to sisters over brothers, either through sex-ratio biases or a pre-existing ability to discriminate sexes among the brood. We show via a kin selection model that a simple feature of insect biology can promote the origin of workers in haplodiploids without requiring either condition. In insects in which females must found and provision new nests, body quality may have a stronger influence on female fitness than on male fitness. If altruism boosts the quality of all larval siblings, sisters may, therefore, benefit more than brothers from receiving the same amount of help. Accordingly, the benefits of altruism would fall disproportionately on supersisters in haplodiploids. Haplodiploid females should be more prone to altruism than diplodiploid females or males of either ploidy when altruism elevates female fitness especially, and even when altruists are blind to sibling sex.The presence of congeneric taxa on the same island suggests the possibility of in situ divergence, but can also result from multiple colonizations of previously diverged lineages. Here, using genome-wide data from a large population sample, we test the hypothesis that intra-island divergence explains the occurrence of four geographical forms meeting at hybrid zones in the Reunion grey white-eye (Zosterops borbonicus), a species complex endemic to the small volcanic island of Reunion. Using population genomic and phylogenetic analyses, we reconstructed the population history of the different forms. We confirmed the monophyly of the complex and found that one of the lowland forms is paraphyletic and basal relative to others, a pattern highly consistent with in situ divergence. Our results suggest initial colonization of the island through the lowlands, followed by expansion into the highlands, which led to the evolution of a distinct geographical form, genetically and ecologically different from the lowland ones. Lowland forms seem to have experienced periods of geographical isolation, but they diverged from one another by sexual selection rather than niche change. Overall, low dispersal capabilities in this island bird combined with both geographical and ecological opportunities seem to explain how divergence occurred at such a small spatial scale.Darwin proposed that lineages with higher diversification rates should evidence this capacity at both the species and subspecies level. This should be the case if subspecific boundaries are evolutionary faultlines along which speciation is generally more likely to occur. This pattern has been described for birds, but remains poorly understood in mammals. To investigate the relationship between species richness (SR) and subspecies richness (SSR), we calculated the strength of the correlation between the two across all mammals. Mammalian taxonomic richness correlates positively, but only very weakly, between the species and subspecies level, deviating from the pattern found in birds. However, when mammals are separated by environmental substrate, the relationship between generic SR and average SSR in non-terrestrial taxa is stronger than that reported for birds (Kendall's tau = 0.31, p less then 0.001). By contrast, the correlation in terrestrial taxa alone weakens compared to that for all mammals (Kendall's tau = 0.

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