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But at this point, they are a relatively small number. Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well. The U.S. Congress approved four separate spending bills for Ukraine in the past year totaling $112 billion. The rest is funding the Ukrainian government (this helps pay the salaries of Ukrainian government workers) and humanitarian aid to help the millions of Ukrainians who have been driven from their homes.

Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II. Ukrainian forces, once equipped and trained for combined arms warfare and tank tactics, will be “designed to punch a hole through a defensive network,” Donahoe predicted. Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia.

Europe bans Russian oil products, the latest strike on the Kremlin war chest

In the end, I think that the Russians are not willing to suffer as many costs as the Ukrainians are. Gideon Rachman How do you assess the incentives of the Ukrainians? I mean, I suppose we hear from them and it’s difficult to dispute it, that they have no incentive to settle because they feel they’re fighting for their freedom and for their statehood. Gideon Rachman I mean, I think, you know, we talk about the first world war, but when you listen to what Putin says, the war that preoccupies him is the second world war. But is one of the complications here that in the nuclear age, that’s just not possible. The country's Western allies have so far offered it major weapons supplies but Ukraine says it has only received a fraction of what it needs to defend itself and is asking for heavier arms.

• Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus.









• I began our discussion by asking Hein Goemans to give me an outline of what war termination theory is all about.









• I mean, the Kremlin has a very effective propaganda apparatus and is successful in inculcating some belief among the ordinary Russians that this is a just war, and thereby driving up the willingness of the Russian people to suffer costs.









• Some Republicans are saying the U.S. should stop funding Ukraine.









• If they get the plane to do the combined arms warfare at which Nato excels and which the Russians simply can’t do and which is a massive force multiplier.









• He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad.

I mean, they are willing and Putin is certainly not stupid either. But he says basically if this doesn’t work, try something else. I mean, there’s rumour now that he’s trying to force the Russians to have another go in Kyiv and the military is saying we can’t do that and we don’t wanna do it but Putin is insisting he is just trying different strategies. This is why Wagner is allowed to do this horrible thing with the prisoners. Hein Goemans Let me start with a very basic kind of introduction to the topic. There is a war because both sides ask more than the other’s willing to give.

Making weapons

But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region.

These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. But however this conflict plays out, the world has changed. Russia's relationship with the outside world will be different. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. Perhaps more likely is that this develops into a protracted war.

Is Russia still using the concept of denazification as justification for the war? — Anya

Russia has also made advances north east of Kupiansk, north of Bakhmut, and south west of Avdiivka, according to the latest ISW assessment. The ISW does note that Russia's advances might be the result of Ukrainian forces withdrawing to "more defensible positions" near Robotyne. The village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region could offer a similar stepping stone but Russian forces are reported to have made some advances in the area.

Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Still, it’s an open question whether the U.S. will be able to indefinitely continue its current level of support, said Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior adviser who has studied the volumes of artillery used in the war.

This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. Most analysts doubt this means their use is likely or imminent. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control.

• It's become clear that the counteroffensive won't produce quick results and that success — however that might be measured in terms of retaking Russian-occupied territory — is not guaranteed.









• The human cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is growing with the number of civilians killed mounting and devastating scenes of destruction spread across the country.









• He noted, however that this would pre-suppose a Russian military collapse and a change in the country’s leadership – something that could take “a long time to achieve and would necessitate considerably greater military capabilities” than Ukraine currently possesses.









• The military course of this war in 2024 will be determined in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang more than in Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the frontlines.

After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine. U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres. President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone. https://notes.io/wfbu3 say feelers are being stretched out to Moscow.

• The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too.









• Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.









• Ukraine first announced it had made a breakthrough in mid-November - the river had separated Ukrainian and Russian forces since Moscow's troops withdrew from Kherson a year ago.









• They had something like 15,000 tanks and now 2,000 of them are kind of gone now, but they can patch together another two, 3,000 tanks if they want to.









• It lets you see on the battlefield how strong you really are, how resolved and how strong your opponent is.